"საქართველო და მსოფლიო" - საზოგადოებრივ-პოლიტიკური გაზეთი

 

Georgia & World 

"მდიდრებიც იხდიან" - საქართველოს დღევანდელი ხელისუფლებისთვისაც დადგა

 

ანგარიშსწორების დრო!

 

(პოლიტოლოგ არნო ხიდირბეგიშვილი ინტერვიუ საინფორმაციო სააგენტო Day.Az - თან)

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07.11.2008

 

_ Tqveni prognozebi ukve xdeba: eqsprezident gorbaCovis sityviT (teleeTeris dros), ruseTma ukve `mianiSna~, risi imedic saqarTvelos SeiZleba hqondes axali xelisuflebis dros _ esaa konfederaciuli mowyoba, sadac konfederaciis uflebebiT Seva afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi, romlebic dReisaTvis, ruseTisa da nikaraguis garda, aravis uRiarebia...

_ ruseTisTvis ki araa xelsayreli, kidev vinmem rom aRiaros afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukidebloba. gana SeiZleba imis gamoricxva, rom maTi damoukideblobis `aRiarebis talRiT~ `aRfrTovanebulebs~ gauCndeT moskovisTvis `zedmeti ambiciebi~ da daiwyon ufro damoukidebeli politika anda moiZion TavianTTvis sxva, ruseTisaTvis alternatiuli `tandemi~ romelime qveyanasTan an blokTan.

rac Seexeba Cems prognozebs, isini kvlavac axdeba: obamas arCeva da misi pirveli miznebi _ SeaCeros omebi eraysa da avRaneTSi, raketsawinaaRmdego Tavdacvis sistemis ganTavsebis SeCereba da klintonis (prezidentis, romelmac Tavis Semdeg amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi ar datova erTi centi valic ki!) administraciis yofili maRalCinosnebiT daakompleqtos ekonomikuri bloki _ kidev ufro daaCqarebs movlenebs. `mdidrebic ixdian~, saqarTvelos dRevandeli xelisuflebisTvis angariSebis gadaxdis droc dadga da Cemi eqvsi scenaridan, ris mixedviTac ruseTi sabolood mova saqarTveloSi, SeiZleba, yvela erTad aRsruldes. es iqneba scenaris meSvide _ `krebsiTi~ varianti, romelmac yvela eqvsivesagan `isesxa~ ganmasxvavebeli Taviseburebani.

_ sxvaTaSoris, obamas Sesaxeb: rogor afasebT amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi gamarTul arCevnebs da amerikeli xalxis arCevans? saqarTveloSi xom, rogorc amboben, ufro gulSematkivrobdnen makkeins, romelic Cven gviWerda mxars da Tavic ki gamoacxada qarTvelad 8-12 agvistos tragikuli movlenebis dros?

_ amerikeli xalxi brZenia, iseve, rogorc yvela sxva xalxi. man uaryo `Zveli qori~ makkeini da upiratesoba mianiWa gawonasworebul 47 wlis obamas! ruseTmac, sxvaTaSoris, 2000 wels vadamde gadaayena moberebuli elcini da arCevani gaakeTa 48 wlis putinze, Semdeg _ 43 wlis medvedevze. azerbaijans dRes xelmZRvanelobs 47 wlis ilham alievi, ukve arafers vambob somxeTis 56 wlis prezidentze serJ sarqsianze. mTel msoflioSi dRes xelisuflebaSi modian politikosebisTvis yvelaze optimalur asakSi, saqarTvelos garda, sadac 2003 wels xelisuflebaSi movida 36 wlis saakaSvili, romelmac Tavis garSemo Semoikriba Tineijerebi! amrigad, xelisufleba saqarTveloSi xandazmuli SevardnaZidan gadaaxta safexurs da umalve aRmoCnda 20-dan 30 wlamde axalgazrdebis xelSi, naxtomebi ki evoluciaSi iZlevian revolucias! amitom moxda saqarTveloSi 2003 wlis noemberSi `vardebis revolucia~; amitomaa, rom dRes, 5 wlis Semdeg, kvlav axali revoluciis zRurblze varT, magram amJamad `vardebisgan~ darCa mxolod `eklebi da cremlebi~: saxelmwifoSi sayovelTao keTildReobis nacvlad ngreva da umuSevrobaa, dapirebuli mTlianobis nacvlad, saqarTvelom dakarga Tavisi teritoriebi da moqalaqeebi _ afxazebi da osebi... amrigad, `ormo mSenebare saxlis saZirkvlisTvis~ aRmoCnda ZmaTa sasaflao asobiT qarTveli axalgazrdisTvis, romlebic daiRupnen politikuri sibecis, mudmivi samxedro avantiurebis Sedegad, riTac saqarTvelos dRevandelma xelisuflebam SokSi Caagdo buSis administraciac ki, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT evropaze...

_ migaCniaT, rom xelisuflebis Secvla saqarTveloSi mainc revoluciuri gziT moxdeba?

_ aucileblad ase moxdeboda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis prezidentad makkeinis arCevis SemTxvevaSi, romelic daiwyebda axal oms iranTan da aiZulebda ruseTs aSkarad Semosuliyo saqarTvelos mTel teritoriaze, gadafareboda sapasuxo saraketo dartymisgan dasacavad masac da mTel danarCen kavkasias, damatebiT _ TurqeTsac. nu dagaviwydebaT, rom ruseTs amJamad mxolod samxreT kavkasiaSi aqvs 8 ukve arsebuli da mSenebare samxedro baza: 5 baza saqarTveloSi  (cxinvalSi, javaSi, gudauTaSi, oCamCiresa da galSi); 2 baza _ somxeTSi (giumri, ijevani); 1 baza azerbaijanSi (gabalini, radiolokaciuri sadguri). axla ki xelisuflebis Secvla saqarTveloSi, vfiqrob, moxdeba konstituciuri gziT _ riggareSe parlamentis, SeiZleba, prezidentis arCevnebis gziT, ris daniSvnasac momavali wlis gazafxulisaTvis saakaSvils aiZuleben opozicia da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis axali administracia, romelic im droisTvis ukve sabolood `aiTvisebs TeTr saxls~, gaerkveva ekonomikur krizisSi da moawesrigebs urTierTobas kremlTan.

Tumca dRevandeli xelisufleba TavganwirviT SeebrZoleba am ambavs da amisTvis wava situaciis ukidures gamwvavebaze, konfliqtur zonebSi _ represiebze; kidev imitom, rom politika saqarTveloSi rCeba yvelaze saukeTeso biznesad: saqarTveloSi moqmed xelisuflebas dRes mizani aqvs, Tu risTvis ibrZolos _ darCes xelisuflebis saTaveSi kidev 4 weliwadi.  diax, esaa 4,5 miliardi dolari, rasac saqarTvelo miiRebs am wlebis ganmavlobaSi... saerTod ki, es yvelaferi gadawydeba ara TbilisSi, aramed moskovsa da vaSingtonSi.

_ vin mova xelisuflebis saTaveSi TbilisSi am arCevnebis Sedegad?

_ yvelaze samwuxaro isaa, rom Cven, qarTvelebs, politikosebis arCevis dros `cudi gemovneba~ gvaqvs: vinc unda movides, mTavaria, rom ar ganmeordes 2004 wlis sindromi, rodesac xalxma `jibrze~ airCia saakaSvili da misi `erovnuli moZraoba~, oRond ar aerCia SevardnaZe da misi garemocva, romelic, `TeTri meliis~ xandazmulobisa da gauTviTcnobiereblobis gamoyenebiT, korufciaSi Caeflo. magram dRevandelma xelisuflebam yvelas `gadaujokra~.

saerTaSoriso daxmarebis miliardobiT dolari rom ar gaflanguliyo sxvadasxva dabali gemovnebis Souebze, `safasado~ reformebze, mesamexarisxovani SeiaraRebis Sesyidvaze, aramed, ubralod, ganawilebuliyo saqarTvelos gaRatakebul mosaxleobas Soris an moxmareboda soflis meurneobis, agraruli seqtoris aRdgenas, dRes TiToeuli Cvengani quveiTis SeixiviT mdidari iqneboda. amitom xelisuflebaSi unda movides politikuradac saRi Zala (Taoba 50 wlamde, ufro naklebi ara!), romelic orientirebuli iqneboda ruseTTan megobruli urTierTobis swraf aRdgenaze, saqarTvelos saxelmwifo neitralitetze da amave dros _ mis integraciaze evrokavSirSi. mas, am xelisuflebas aRarasodes mouvidoda azrad Tbilisis puSkinis skverisTvis varSavis saxelis miniWeba, moskovis prospeqtisTvis ki _ cxinvalisa...

_ ese igi, sagareo-politikuri kursis kardinaluri cvlileba...

_ savsebiT sworia. msoflio globalizaciis centri amerika aRmosavleTSi yovelTvis iyo `ucxo sxeuli~, politikurad araregionuli moTamaSe, amitom, bolos da bolos, amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis axali prezidentisadmi yvela simpaTiis miuxedavad, is, albaT, ver iqneba kavkasiaSi `msajuli~. magaliTad, somxebi da azerbaijanelebi dResac ki Suamavlad da garantad yarabaRis konfliqtis mowesrigebaSi ruseTs irCeven. me jer kidev 2005 wlidan vayenebdi gacilebiT ufro misaReb variants _ neitraluri saxelmwifos gzas ara mxolod ruseTis, aramed gaeros, evrokavSirisa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis garantiebiT! magram mTeli es wlebi Cveni xelisufleba da maTi `jibis politologebi~, romlebsac me, proqtologebTan analogiiT, proqto-politologebi Sevarqvi, Cems ideebSi xedavdnen mxolod `Sulaveris komitets~, `gru-s agentebs~, `kremlis xels~, `ruseTis fexs~ da ase Semdeg, Sedegad dRes miviReT swored es `fexi~, Tumca ukve CeqmaSi Cvens cxvirwin _ dedaqalaqidan erTi saaTis savalSi...

_ keTili, magram rogor SeiZleboda, winaswar gamogvecno movlenaTa ganviTareba; rogor SevZloT politikis `mZvinvare okeaneSi~ orientireba, rodesac zogjer dauZinebeli mtrebi mokavSireebi xdebian, xolo istoriuli megobrebi da mezoblebi, rogorc, magaliTad, ruseTi da saqarTvelo, dRes erTmaneTTan brZolas iwyeben?..

_ swored imitom, rom cxovreba sul moZraobs da icvleba, Cven gvWirdeba almasis sizustis orientiri, es aris swored simarTle... is SeiZleba ar iyos sruli, magram mas ar SeuZlia iyos Segnebulad damaxinjebuli TviT yvelaze maRali miznebisTvisac ki! winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi yvelaferi daiSleba. mezRvaurs ar SeuZlia aiRos orientacia varskvlavTcvenaze...~ _ wers mwerali fazil iskanderi.

ise rogor gamodis _ cxovreba icvleba da sityvaTa mniSvnelobac masTan erTad icvleba?! anda, iqneb, zogierT sityvas Tavdapirvelad gansxvavebuli azri hqonda sxvadasxva xalxisTvis. erTnairia rusebisTvis, qarTvelebisa da amerikelebisTvis orientiri, roca amboben sityvas `simarTle~. xom ar dagvimaxinjebia Cven simarTle, rodesac mas okeanis gaRma veZebdiT, orientacias xom ar viRebdiT `varskvlavTcvenaze~, rogoric, ueWvelia, iyo amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis wina administracia?!

mivaRwieT Cvens maRal mizans _ erTiani saqarTvelos keTildReobas, rodesac orientirad avirCieT natos oTxqimiani varskvlavi kremlis xuTqimiani varskvlavis sanacvlod?

ar vfiqrob... vfiqrob mxolod imas, rom dRes saqarTvelom da ruseTma unda uTxran erTmaneTs, jerjerobiT Tundac arasruli, magram Segnebulad daumaxinjebeli simarTle! iqneb, maSin gavixsenebT, rom erTi Zveli megobari or axals sjobs... da aq orientiri unda iyos ara varskvlavebi an naxevarmTvare, aramed anCisxatis qarTuli marTlmadidebeli taZris jvari, romelsac saukuneebis ganmavlobaSi bevri megobaric unaxavs da bevri mteric...